Polly the parrot predicts win for Clinton
Polly the parrot forecasted a national two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton and 48.0% for Trump yesterday. For the last 9 day, the PollyVote forecast has been looking worse for Clinton, she has since lost 0.5 percentage points.
This is what Polly's component methods predict
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. In contrast to Polly's combined forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 51.2%. Expectation polls predict a vote share of 51.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 48.8% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast. Trump gained 2.1 percentage point in the polls compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
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