Weekly newsletter with the purpose to provide data-based news about the U.S. Presidential Election 2016
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First things first: Clinton is predicted to win

As of July 27 the Democrats are predicted to win the presidential election of 2016. The latest data says that the Democrats will win with 51.9 of the vote while the Republicans get 48.1 percent.
Tip: All the charts from PollyVote can be embedded for free. 

Hello from PollyVote,
let us start with a quick wrap up. Since the start of our forecast on January 1st, 2016, the Democrats are in the lead in the battle for the White House. However, as PollyVote aggregates multiple prediction components some of the individual predictions may point in a different direction than the final prediction: Early this week, a CNN poll was published that saw Trump bouncing into the lead, which gained a lot of attention in the media. However, single polls need to be put in context in order to interpret them since they can incorporate large errors. Interestingly, CNN is not the only poll or other methodological component which predicted Trump to win; nevertheless the overall aggregation still shows Clinton with a lead of about 4 percent. But have a look yourself. The diversity of components is reflected in this weeks selection of automated articles.

We  understand this newsletter as a conversation - about the trustability of forecasts and about the quality and deployment of automated news. Thus, we welcome feedback, so be in touch.
The PollyVote Team
In the following you find four selected articles generated by the PollyBot, automatically generated based on data from surveys, polls and other single predictions.

Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in latest Gravis Marketing/OANN poll

Gravis Marketing/OANN published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, which was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing/OANN, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 51.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump. This poll was conducted from July 21 to July 22, among a random sample of 3462 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-1.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Find the whole story online here.

Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead

The Issues and Leaders model enters the quantitative index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.0%. In comparison, on July 19, Clinton was predicted to achieve 52.1% of the vote.

Results compared to other quantitative index models

An average of recent quantitative index models sees Clinton at 53.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's quantitative index model average is 1.5 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results are consistent with the prediction from PollyVote.

Find the story online here.

Big-issue index model: Clinton tied with Trump

The Big-issue model is part of the quantitative index models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate ending up with 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on July 19, Clinton was predicted to end up with 50.3% of the vote.

Find the whole story online here.

Polly the parrot predicts win for Clinton

Polly the parrot forecasted a national two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton and 48.0% for Trump yesterday. For the last 9 day, the PollyVote forecast has been looking worse for Clinton, she has since lost 0.5 percentage points.

This is what Polly's component methods predict

There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. In contrast to Polly's combined forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 51.2%. Expectation polls predict a vote share of 51.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 48.8% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast. Trump gained 2.1 percentage point in the polls compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.

Find the story online here.

Given that both parties have now staged their conventions, next weeks edition of this newsletter will look into the effects of those decisions: Do the polls change, yes, no? Find out next Wednesday. 
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In case you seek for more information, wish to point out mistakes or simply have a thought to share with us, please, do not hesitate to contact us. In case you are interested in using our visualizations, you can do that easily and for free. You find them on our media-page

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