For Immediate Release
Contact: Robert Cahaly
Trafalgar Group: Most Accurate Polls in
Battleground States (FL, PA, MI, NC, OH, CO, GA) and
Most Accurate Electoral Projection 306 Trump - 232 Clinton Statement of Robert Cahaly
Senior Strategist, The Trafalgar Group
(Atlanta, GA) – "When we began releasing our battleground state polls--namely Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan--they were dismissed on traditional and social media as outliers that couldn't possibly be correct.
Our unique approach measuring the "hidden Trump vote" was the key factor in producing the most consistently accurate state polls and national projection map. The theory that there could exist a wholesale, one-directional shift of voters being less than honest in answering unbiased survey questions challenged polling orthodoxy.
When we discovered this discrepancy in our GOP primary polling this spring, we doubted it too, but this fall we added a ballot test question (the "neighbors" question) in an attempt to capture the respondent's genuine opinion. In the state presidential surveys this fall we noticed a consistent, across the board recurrence of this answer discrepancy.
In every state we measured, Clinton's number dropped in a range of 3-11%, and Trump's numbers increased in the range of 3-7% between the initial ballot test and the "neighbors" ballot test. Our survey results and electoral projection map reflected the inclusion of the hidden Trump voters.
So as the political pundits, operatives, and other pollsters were experiencing shock and awe (even though @trfgrp tweeted what was going to happen to many of the members of the media throughout the night) last night while the election was unfolding, 95% of the results came exactly as we expected.
Our electoral projection was 306-232, and if the uncalled states break the way they are leaning, the final result will be 306-232. The only deviations from our projected map would be New Hampshire and Nevada breaking for Clinton, and Wisconsin (which we listed a possible Trump pick up) breaking for Trump.
I want to thank our amazing Trafalgar Group team for their long hours and dedication to getting it right. 'It's time to put down the energy drinks, phones, close the computers and get some sleep, guys.' I also want to thank all of those in traditional and social media who reported our numbers, taking a leap of faith on a small company that was zigging while the rest of the industry zagged."
Editor's Note: See below RCP screenshots showing ours as the most, or tied for most, accurate poll. As well as our electoral map.
The Trafalgar Group (TFG) conducted many of the most accurate GOP polls in the 2016 Primary, most notably Florida,Georgia, South Carolinain the southeast, as well as Michigan, Ohio, Kansas, and Louisiana. For the 2016 General, TFG released polls in numerous battleground state and an electoral college projection. The results and information of these polls and projection have been featured in numerous national news stories, television networks, and high-profile polling websites like Real Clear Politics.